Methodology

How the early-warning model works

No black box. Faculty can see which signal moved a score and why a particular intervention was suggested.

01

Collect

Attendance registers, assessment results and learning-platform activity sync nightly from your student information system.

02

Normalise

Signals are scaled per course and per cohort, so a hard module doesn't flag an entire class as failing.

03

Score

A weighted model produces a 0–100 risk score plus a predicted end-of-term grade, refreshed every Monday.

04

Recommend

Each flagged student is matched to an intervention type, an owner and a deadline based on which signal is failing.

Signal weights

Tuned against three prior cohorts of end-of-term outcomes.

  • Attendance decline34%
  • Assessment scores28%
  • Missed submissions19%
  • LMS engagement12%
  • Faculty flags7%

Intervention rules

What the platform suggests when a specific pattern appears.

  • Attendance falls below 70% or drops 15 points in 6 weeks

    → Attendance contract plus a mentor check-in within the week

  • Two consecutive assessments below 50%

    → Diagnostic test and a structured study plan for that subject

  • Three or more missed submissions in one course

    → Peer tutoring pairing with a teaching assistant

  • Engagement collapses while grades hold

    → Wellbeing conversation with student services before grades follow

Responsible use

  • Scores are advisory. They open a conversation; they never decide a grade or a progression outcome.
  • Only staff assigned to a student can see that student's profile and history.
  • Every flag records the signals behind it, so a student can be told exactly why they were contacted.